On 26 December 2024, Gazprom said it had delivered about 31 billion cubic metres of gas to China through the Power of Siberia pipeline during the year. The contractual plan was 30 billion cubic metres. Interfax reported that the outperformance was enabled primarily by bringing the pipeline to its design rate of 38 billion cubic metres a year one month ahead of schedule. For the export infrastructure of Russia, this was an important operating threshold: a multiyear ramp-up had become stable work at full contracted capacity.

The increase was substantial compared with the previous year. Actual deliveries reached 22.7 billion cubic metres in 2023, while the 2024 plan called for 30 billion. Such growth required coordinated readiness across production fields, compressor stations, the pipeline itself and the receiving system in China. Pipeline exports differ from a one-off commodity sale because volume cannot be added quickly without a chain of physical assets built in advance and operated in a synchronized regime.

A long turquoise gas pipeline crosses a sunny Siberian landscape from mountains to an industrial terminal
Full export capacity depends on continuous coordination among gas fields, compressor stations and receiving infrastructure.

How the pipeline reached its design rate

Deliveries on the eastern route began in 2019 using gas from the Chayandinskoye field in Yakutia. The Kovykta field in the Irkutsk region was later connected to the system. Contracted volumes rose each year along a pre-agreed path. This model reduces the risk that new infrastructure will remain underused: production, transport capacity and demand enter service sequentially rather than in one large jump.

By the summer of 2024, the system was already demonstrating an ability to operate above its daily obligations. Interfax reported on 29 July that a new daily record had been set on 27 July. Those peaks were more than public milestones. They were operating tests showing that production, dispatch and compressor equipment could sustain a higher flow before the formal transition to full capacity.

What supported the 31-billion-cubic-metre result

  • Early readiness. Moving to the design daily rate on 1 December rather than at the start of 2025 added volume at the end of the reporting period.
  • Two production centres. The Chayandinskoye and Kovykta fields formed the resource base for the expanding flow.
  • Contracted demand. Deliveries were made under a long-term agreement between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation, giving the increase an established buyer.
  • Route reliability. Exceeding the annual plan requires stable performance across the chain, not merely a record at one station.
  • Staged commissioning. Gradual increases in obligations allowed constraints to be identified before full utilization.

Why full capacity changes route economics

A large pipeline carries substantial fixed costs. Construction, route maintenance, dispatch systems and compressor capacity are needed regardless of how full the pipe is. Higher utilization distributes those expenses across more volume. Reaching the design rate can therefore improve unit economics, although final profitability still depends on the pricing formula, production costs, taxes and capital expenditure.

Full utilization also reduces spare headroom inside the existing contract. Further growth can no longer come solely from accelerating an already approved schedule. It will require a new volume agreement, an expansion of the current system or another route. In September, Business FM noted that Gazprom and CNPC had agreed to bring deliveries to their maximum level in December 2024 instead of early 2025. The year-end result confirmed that the agreement had been implemented.

For eastern Siberian regions, the export pipeline represents more than external revenue. It connects field development, energy supply, contracting and transport infrastructure. The local effect is not automatic, however. Regional businesses gain more durable opportunities where procurement, maintenance, repair and workforce training are embedded in long-term operations rather than confined to the construction phase.

The business conclusion from 2024

The 31-billion-cubic-metre figure matters less as a one-billion annual overrun than as evidence that the system was ready for continuous full loading. For the supplier, this is a transition from a growth project to a mature operating asset. During ramp-up, attention centres on construction schedules and new capacity. At the design rate, equipment availability, maintenance cost, demand forecasting and prevention of downtime become the dominant measures.

For the buyer, the result improves the predictability of pipeline flow, while investors gain a firmer basis for assessing asset utilization. The next question is no longer whether Power of Siberia can reach an annualized rate of 38 billion cubic metres. After December 2024, the question became how reliably the route can sustain that level and what commercial decisions will be needed to expand trade further.